Austria's Blue Heart
The far-right Freedom Party won a landslide victory in state elections in Styria, throwing a spanner in the works of coalition negotiations in Vienna
Servus!
On Sunday, there was a political earthquake in Styria, Austria’s second-largest state1. The far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) swept to victory, winning 34.8 percent of the vote and increasing their vote share by a staggering 17.3 percentage points—simply an enormous swing. The FPÖ were followed by the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) on 26.8 percent, the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) on 21.4 percent, the Greens on 6.2 percent, the NEOS on 5.9 percent, and the Communist Party (KPÖ) on 4.4 percent.
For the first time since 1945, the FPÖ has won a state election in Styria, and the state constitution means that, by default, the far-right will be given the first crack at forming a government there. The current state government—a coalition of the ÖVP and SPÖ led by governor Christopher Drexler (ÖVP)—lost its majority in the state parliament. It is probable, then, that for the first time since the War, neither the ÖVP nor the SPÖ will control the governorship in Styria. Both the ÖVP and SPÖ have indicated a willingness to negotiate with the FPÖ.
An FPÖ victory in Styria was foreseeable for the party had led polls throughout this year, but the scale of their victory was nonetheless surprising. Twice as many people—229,000 versus 104,000—voted for the FPÖ in 2024 versus 2019. In building their new coalition, the FPÖ won over 56,000 2019 non-voters, 52,000 ÖVP voters, and 22,000 SPÖ voters. These shifts in voter behavior mirror trends we saw at the federal level in September’s parliamentary elections. Ditto the FPÖ’s popularity among economically active voters without a high school diploma, 52 percent of whom voted for the far-right in Styria on Sunday.
Following the vote, Drexler was quick to blame federal politics for his defeat and the ÖVP’s 9.3 percentage point decline in its vote share. Had President Alexander Van der Bellen given the FPÖ a mandate to form a government following September’s election and the ÖVP, so his theory went, the outcome of Sunday’s election in Styria would have been different. This explanation, however, is simply implausible and fails to consider the FPÖ’s sustained popularity locally and nationally and that the current circumstances were forced by his own party, the ÖVP, which ruled out governing with the FPÖ’s leader Herbert Kickl. If Drexler thinks the ÖVP should form a coalition with Kickl, perhaps he should have the courage to say so.
The fact is, at the state level as at the federal, Austrians who agree with the policies of the FPÖ vote for the FPÖ. When asked for the main reason they chose the party they voted for, 27 percent of FPÖ voters said the party’s politics, while another 12 percent said the party “represents my interests2.” Drexler’s theory also tactfully sidesteps his own role in his downfall, with FPÖ voters making up 61 percent of those who said they were dissatisfied with the current state government in Styria and 59 percent of those who said Styria had gone in the wrong direction over the past five years3.
This result will undoubtedly spook the horses, Drexler among the frettest of them. Formal negotiations between the ÖVP, SPÖ, and NEOS over forming a coalition government at the federal level began last week and are likely to go on through the end of 2024 and into early 2025—meaning, through another round of state elections in Burgenland where the SPÖ is attempting to defend its absolute majority. Voices in the ÖVP calling for a change of course may grow louder now, but the party—indeed, all three parties—should factor into their plans that, electorally, things are likely to get worse before they get better. In the short term, the FPÖ is likely to continue performing well in state and local elections.
Bis bald!
Thank you for reading The Vienna Briefing. Nothing beats a personal recommendation; if you know someone who would be interested in reading this newsletter, consider sharing it with them today.
The Vienna Briefing is a reader-supported publication. Your one-time or monthly tips make my work on this newsletter possible and help keep it free for everyone.
Into Schengen
Austria is set to back down and lift its veto on Romania and Bulgaria joining the European Union’s Schengen common travel area. Concerns about irregular migration led Austria to block the two countries’ entry into Schengen earlier this year.
International Law Still Applies
Austria’s foreign ministry condemned the International Criminal Court’s decision to issue arrest warrants for Israel’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant. The country stopped short, however, of saying it would not enforce the warrants were either man to appear on Austrian soil.
Baby Murder Case
A one-week-old baby was found dead in a trash can on the grounds of a hospital in Vienna last week—a day after the child was reported missing from the neonatal ward. The baby’s mother is currently the only suspect in what is being treated as a murder investigation.
By area, if not by population.
A healthcare reform plan that will lead to hospital consolidation in Styria has proven unpopular with residents of towns set to lose their local hospitals, for example.
Another 7 percent chose the party’s “credibility”—astonishing given the Styrian FPÖ has been tied up in corruption scandals for years.