The Long Pandemic
In September's election, the far-right Freedom Party won 52 percent of Austrian voters who said that the COVID-19 pandemic mattered to them
Servus!
Who is the typical the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) voter? They are just as likely to be male as female—29 percent of men and 28 percent of women voted for the FPÖ on September 29. They are more likely to be of working age and have fewer years of education behind them: the FPÖ won 47 percent of economically active people without a high school diploma versus only 21 percent of retirees and 15 percent of university graduates. They are also more likely to live in countryside (33 percent) than in the cities (22 percent).
Those are the demographic factors, but as important—if not more so—is are certain ideological ones. The FPÖ won 44 percent of voters who said they were unhappy with the current government and 45 percent who said that democracy was not the best form of government. The far-right also over-performed among voters who said that the cost of living (39 percent), immigration (46 percent), and criminality and terrorism (45 percent) were issues that mattered to them.
Though if there were one subset of voters among whom the FPÖ really cleaned up, it was those who said that the COVID-19 pandemic was something that mattered to them. The far-right won 52 percent of those voters—way ahead of the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) on 20 percent and Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) on 13 percent. At the same time, the FPÖ under-performed compared to its national vote share among voters who said the pandemic was not an issue that they talked about very much (23 percent).
Indeed, both in Austria’s cities and its rural areas, the FPÖ consistently performed better among voters who elected not to get the COVID-19 vaccine than those who did. The FPÖ won 35 percent of rural unvaccinated voters versus 31 percent of vaccinated voters and 28 percent of urban unvaccinated voters compared to 25 percent of urban vaccinated. The regions in which the FPÖ most strongly—Oberkärnten in Carinthia as well as the Innviertel and parts of the Mühlviertel in Upper Austria—also have some of the lowest COVID-19 vaccination take-up rates in the country.
Having initially been in favor of even stricter countermeasures than the government was implementing at the time, right in the earliest phase of the pandemic, the FPÖ made a strategic decision to conduct a volte-face and adopt a contrarian position opposing COVID-19 countermeasures including lockdowns, mask-wearing, and social distancing. They also opposed the vaccine mandate, announced in November 2021, passed into law, but never implemented. The FPÖ took on a vaccine-skeptic position, with FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl promoting the use of the horse de-worming agent ivermectin as a treatment for COVID-19.
The final COVID-19 countermeasures lapsed at the end of June 2023, but the long arm of the pandemic continues to influence Austrian politics. Those who felt aggrieved by it—whether because they believed the lockdowns were too harsh or hold esoteric, pseudo-scientific views on vaccination—were drawn to the FPÖ, which promotes quasi-conspiratorial views about ‘vaccine injury’ and the role of the World Health Organization. The FPÖ’s adoption of these views—either because they believe them themselves or consider it advantageous to give the appearance that they do—is one of the ways the party successfully constructed a coalition of voters with minority views large enough to propel them to victory on September 29—and perhaps, back into government.
Bis bald!
Thank you for subscribing to the Vienna Briefing. Every recommendation helps, so if you know someone who might be interested in reading this newsletter, consider sharing it with them today.
The Vienna Briefing is a reader-supported publication made possible by your contributions. If you would like to support my work on this newsletter, think about sending me a tip.
Exploratory Talks Continue
President Alexander Van der Bellen has called for talks between the heads of the FPÖ, ÖVP, and SPÖ in order to establish who is willing to govern with whom. Van der Bellen clarified he is not currently in a position to hand the FPÖ a mandate to form a government because no other party is, at this stage, open to Kickl be
SPÖ Thrown Into Chaos
The PR guru and media personality Rudi Fußi intends to challenge incumbent Andreas Babler for the leadership of the SPÖ. Babler led the SPÖ to their worst ever election result last month, finishing third with 21.1 percent of the vote, though he retains the confidence of senior figures in the party.
Economy Continues To Struggle
Austria’s GDP is set to fall by 0.6 percent this year, according to new projections published by two of the country’s leading economic institutes. The budget deficit will hit between 3.5 and 3.7 percent in 2024—above the 3 percent threshold imposed by the European Union’s Maastricht criteria.
Thank you for this insightful analysis. So, would you say it is those voters that feel at the margins of 'mainstream society' that are attracted by the FPÖ? It seems a bit like the vote of a people who are financially, educationally, geographically, and in terms of health acceptance 'on the margins'? Resonates very much w populism research, scary nonetheless.