Austria And Ukraine: Two Years On
Austria still does not have new and up-to-date energy and security policies two years into the Russo-Ukrainian War
Servus!
Last month marked the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. One year ago, I wrote to you that “Russian president Vladimir Putin has failed in both his maximalist and minimalist war aims,” and that continues to be true. Russia was unable to take the Ukrainian capital in February 2022 and install a puppet regime there. Instead, Russian forces remain concentrated in eastern and southern Ukraine in territories it moved to annex in September 2022, an act unrecognized by the international community.
What has changed over the course of the past year, however, is that the balance of power on the frontline in eastern and southern Ukraine has shifted in Russia’s favor. In June, Ukraine launched its great counteroffensive with the aim of breaching Russia’s frontlines and reclaiming lost territory. In both senses, that counteroffensive was largely unsuccessful. Over the course of the winter, Russia used its numerical and technological superiority to push back against the Ukrainian advance, taking the village of Avdiivka in February shortly before the war’s two-year anniversary.
The Ukrainian defensive line has not collapsed, but the country does find itself in a precarious position, something which has renewed Western focus on aid to Ukraine. At the start of February, Austria signed onto a €50 billion assistance package for Ukraine, and upon the two-year anniversary of the war, the European Union agreed its thirteen round of sanctions against Russia targeting its military and defense sector in particular. In the context of sanctions, however, Austria has continued to protect what it defines as its national interests, lobbying Ukraine to remove one of its banks from a blacklist of international sponsors of war last year.
Indeed, two years into the war, many Austrian companies continue to maintain operations in Russia, according to a database compiled by the Yale School of Management. These firms are operating across the Russian economy, not only in banking but sectors ranging from agriculture to construction, energy and logistics. Austria, too, remains dependent on Russian energy. Although total imports have fallen since the start of the war, in December, 98 percent of all Austria’s gas imports came from Russia. That figure fell to 97 percent in January.
Austria not only lacks a clear strategy to divest from Russian energy, it still does not have a new security policy in keeping with the new reality in Europe. In July, Austria signed a declaration of intent to join the European Sky Shield Initiative, but its fundamental commitment to its own neutrality remains unchanged even as Sweden and Finland have revisited this question and revised its approach by joining NATO. Last month, chancellor Karl Nehammer ruled out the possibility of Austria backing the formation of a European army.
But “neutrality in itself offers no protection, as Belgium learnt during the Second World War,” former chancellor Wolfgang Schüssel of Nehammer’s People’s Party (ÖVP) wrote March 101. Schüssel did not call for Austria to join NATO; rather, he argued the country has to improve its own defense capabilities and deepen cooperation with Austria’s EU partners within the framework of NATO’s Partnership for Peace, of which Austria has been a member since 19952. “In the event of an attack on an EU member state,” Schüssel argued, Austria “must be well prepared” to uphold its treaty obligations: “There is little room for neutrality.”
Bis bald!
Thank you for subscribing to the Vienna Briefing. Every recommendation helps, so if you know someone who might be interested in reading this newsletter, consider sharing it with them today.
The Vienna Briefing is a reader-supported publication made possible by your donations. If you would like to contribute to my work, think about sending me a tip.
Red Versus Red
The Communist Party (KPÖ) had a strong showing in Sunday’s local elections in Salzburg as the ÖVP’s vote collapsed in the state capital. KPÖ candidate Kay-Michael Dankl finished second in the race to become Salzburg’s next mayor and will face SPÖ candidate Bernhard Auinger in a runoff election in two weeks’ time.
Seyß-Inquart Was Austrian
President Alexander Van der Bellen acknowledged Austria’s particular historical responsibility for the Holocaust in the Netherlands because the occupied country’s Reichskommissar, Arthur Seyß-Inquart, was Austrian. Van der Bellen made the remarks at the opening of the new National Holocaust Museum in Amsterdam.
Net Worth: Zero
René Benko, founder of the once-mighty real estate giant Signa Holding who was believed to be worth more than $5 billion, has filed for bankruptcy. Since November of last year, Benko has also been under investigation by state prosecutors in Munich on suspicion of money laundering, according to a report in the Bild am Sonntag.
Schüssel has long supported Austria revisiting its permanent neutrality, though he is a strange spokesperson for such a cause considering that, until Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he sat on the board of the Russian energy giant Lukoil, and before that, the telecommunications firm MTS.
What value the Partnership for Peace has as a cooperative framework, considering Russia and Belarus are also members, is unclear.