The Vranitzky Line
The editor of one of Austria's national newspapers speculates that the Social Democratic Party and far-right Freedom Party could enter coalition together
Servus!
What if there’s another way? In last week’s newsletter introducing the new political year, I wrote to you that the most likely outcome of the 2024 election remains a coalition between the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) and far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), for the two parties are closer to each other than ever, particularly on social and immigration policy. An alternative would be a three-party coalition encompassing the broad center of Austrian politics: the ÖVP, the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ), and likely the liberal NEOS, though the Greens could also act as the third wheel.
One option I didn’t consider was a coalition between the two largest parties in the polls: the FPÖ and SPÖ. Such an arrangement seems absurd on its face—the center-left hopping into bed with the far-right and such a tryst developing into a loving marriage—though not preposterous enough for Martina Salomon, editor of the daily newspaper Kurier. She wrote in her weekend column that even though under its new leader Andreas Babler, the SPÖ “has moved strongly to the left,” “one cannot reflexively rule out a blue-red government,” with reference to the party colors of the FPÖ and SPÖ respectively.
Salomon notes that the two parties have cooperated “pragmatically” in recent years while in opposition, teaming up to form parliamentary committees to investigate the Ibiza affair and, most recently, billionaires with links to the ÖVP in receipt of COVID relief funds. Such cooperation, however, is in the nature of opposition politics in Austria, where such committees are one of the few instruments the opposition has to check the power of the government. It is likely that the same cooperation would’ve emerged were, say, the FPÖ and ÖVP in opposition or the FPÖ, Greens, and NEOS.
“Before the fall of [Sebastian] Kurz,” Salomon writes, going back to the chaotic events of late 2021, “the SPÖ—then still under [the leadership of Pamela] Rendi-Wagner—were even prepared, without hesitation, to form a provisional government with the FPÖ and the Greens.” It is true that, prior to Kurz’s resignation, the Greens were exploring alternative coalitions including one featuring all parties bar the ÖVP. This, however, never went anywhere: Kurz resigned, foreign minister Alexander Schallenberg became chancellor, and the SPÖ and FPÖ’s vote of no-confidence in the government failed. Whether the SPÖ and FPÖ would’ve ever governed together, then, is but idle speculation.
“[Former chancellors] Bruno Kreisky and [Fred] Sinowatz also co-operated with the FPÖ.” Indeed, the FPÖ gave supply-and-confidence to Kreisky’s minority government between 1970 and 1971, while in 1983, Kreisky pushed his successor, Sinowatz, into a ‘small coalition’ with the FPÖ. However, once the far-right populist Jörg Haider took over the FPÖ in September 1986—succeeding Norbert Steger who came from the liberal wing of the party—Sinowatz’s next-in-line, Franz Vranitzky, broke off the SPÖ’s arrangement with the FPÖ and called new elections. Since then, the SPÖ has held to the Vranitzky line: No coalition with the FPÖ1.
“The rift between ÖVP and SPÖ is deeper than between SPÖ and FPÖ. In terms of social policy, the FPÖ has always been on the left anyway,” Salomon writes. The ÖVP’s rightward and SPÖ’s leftward drifts have widened the divide between the two parties of state, yes, but here, Salomon displays a misunderstanding of the FPÖ so fundamental as to be mind-boggling. The FPÖ’s social policies are not social democratic. The party styles itself the “soziale Heimatpartei”: handouts and benefits for the ‘little man,’ meaning the little Austrian man, and punishment and ostracism for everyone else. Governing with such a party would constitute suicide for the SPÖ, and an FPÖ-SPÖ coalition, and thus Salomon’s column, reads like nothing more than ÖVP fan fiction.
Bis bald!
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The Vienna Briefing returns on January 24.
At the federal level, at least. The SPÖ has governed with the FPÖ in both Burgenland and Carinthia since the Vranitzky line came into effect.