Trump Redux
Donald Trump's re-election returns uncertainty to the transatlantic relationship with Austria on trade, Ukraine and the western Balkans
Servus!
Last week, Donald Trump was elected president of the United States in a manner—with the proviso that the votes are still being counted in certain states—that looks set to be clear and definitive. The consequences of Trump’s re-election are both known and unknown, for historical experience would indicate that the actions of the Trump White House will depend to a certain extent on whim and mood. If the incoming president is taken at his word, however, the transatlantic relationship is headed for rocky ground.
As I wrote to you nearly four years ago now upon the inauguration of Joe Biden, if the Obama years were characterized by a perceived indifference towards Europe amid talk of a ‘pivot to Asia,’ the Trump administration was a hostile, destructive force. Austria was spared the worst of it, which was meted out to America’s German partners, though it was unable avoid the effects of the trade war instigated by the White House, and in particular, the tariffs imposed on steel and aluminum tariffs in 2018.
The Biden administration did not repeal those tariffs, but rather froze them. European officials were also disappointed with parts of Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act that violated World Trade Organization rules and constituted a kind of financial doping. Nonetheless, Biden’s presidency did, on defense and security issues, witness a restoration of the previous transatlantic order, and the United States has been the largest financial and military supporter of Ukraine since its invasion by Russia in February 2022.
The prospect of a second Trump administration brings with it a period of fear and uncertainty for Austria as for Europe. The nomination of Elise Stefanik—who voted against security aid for Ukraine in April 2024, having previously been in favor of backing the country’s war effort—as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, in conjunction with Trump’s previous remarks on Ukraine and Russia, indicates that the new White House will likely try and bump Ukraine into negotiations and a peace deal with Russia, perhaps on terms favorable to Russian president Vladimir Putin. If Ukraine’s European allies would seek to avoid such a scenario, the burden is likely to fall on them to keep up financial and military aid.
At a time when the Austrian economy is struggling to pull itself out of a recession, Austrian industry may also have to contend with another trade war with the United States, albeit a far broader and deeper one than last time around. Trump has pledged to introduce tariffs of between 10 and 20 percent on all imports to the United States including from the European Union. The impact on Austria—even more so if the EU retaliates in kind—would be reduced trade with the United States and a subsequent reduction in GDP over the course of the next four years. The trade war may also contribute to inflation, something the European Central Bank has only just gotten under control.
Austria should also be concerned about what a Trump administration may mean for its foreign policy interests in its neighborhood, especially the western Balkans, which Austria wants to integrate into the EU. The previous Trump administration took a particular interest in the conflict between Serbia and Kosovo, taking the former’s side while trying and failing to negotiate a final status agreement between the two parties. Serbian president Aleksandar Vučić is already trying to ingratiate himself with Trump, speaking to him late Sunday, “inviting him to visit the Balkan country while pointing out that in Serbia the U.S. president-elect had the highest level of support of all European states during the election campaign,” the Associated Press reported. Trump’s approach to Europe will likely resemble a series of quid pro quos from which only those willing to play fealty are likely to benefit.
Bis bald!
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Thank you, Liam, for the excellent work you do. Such troubling times!