Taking The Minority View
Two social researchers from Germany and Austria question the notion that Austrian society is more divided than ever and defined by 'irreconcilable polarization'
Servus!
In their weekend edition just past, the Standard highlighted the recent work of sociologist Thomas Lux from Berlin’s Humboldt University and social scientist Martina Zandonella of the opinion research institute formerly known as SORA, now called Foresight. The pair have been researching the oft heard propositions that “society is more divided than ever before” and contemporary society is defined by “irreconcilable polarization” on key political and social questions.
Lux and Zandonella’s conclusion—grounded in an analysis of years-worth of attitudinal surveys as well as Lux’s own opinion polling, discussions, and focus groups—is that, in fact, "polarization has not increased over the past thirty years." On some issues, the balance between those taking the for and against positions has remained more-or-less consistent. A decent majority, for example, continues to believe in income redistribution to lessen socio-economic inequalities. On others, particularly social issues like those related to gender and sexuality, “there has been a trend towards greater unity” and “greater liberalism.”
In Austria, Lux and Zandonella reported, 90 percent of people now agree with the sentiment that ‘gays and lesbians should be free to live their lives as they wish,’ up from 70 percent in 2006, while 77 percent of Austrians share the same view with regards to trans people. Beneath the surface, however, it is true that, as Lux and Zandonella also found, there is a certain contentiousness on the specifics of what this might mean in practice, including use of gender-inclusive forms of the German language.
If Lux and Zandonella’s conclusions are correct, how, then, to account for the re-emergence of the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ), which has been regularly polling at 30 percent for months now and whose entire narrative is grounded in an us-versus-them dichotomy? Part of it rests on what the researchers found out about societal attitudes towards immigration. “The data shows a stronger conflict of opinion on the topic,” the Standard reported, and over the past 20 years, “significant conflicts in attitudes between socio-economic milieus have emerged.” 67 percent of production workers now agree that "immigrants only come to Austria to take advantage of the welfare state,” for instance.
A typical FPÖ voter is more likely to be male than female, have fewer years of formal education than A-levels or a university degree, and be working age as opposed to retired, but perhaps the surest determining factor for whether someone will vote for the FPÖ or not is whether they say immigration is an issue that is important to them. The FPÖ has been an anti-immigration, anti-Islam, and anti-European party since its Jörg Haider-led insurgence in the 1990s. Their position—Fortress Austria; a halt to all asylum and a hostile environment for asylum seekers—is nothing if not clear. For anti-immigration voters, the FPÖ is there for them.
Even at 30 percent of the vote, the FPÖ remains a minority party. This shows that what the FPÖ has been particularly adept at under Herbert Kickl’s leadership, besides reinforcing its main theme of immigration, is not taking one side in some 50/50 societal schism, but adopting a series of narrow, minority positions, enabling them to gradually assembles a strong, determined voter coalition. On COVID-19, Ukraine, and trans issues, the FPÖ does not represent the views of even half of Austrians. However, it has managed to find enough potential voters, as 2023 draws to a close, to put them, looking ahead to next year’s parliamentary elections, on the verge of a return to power.
Bis bald!
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Austria Gives With One Hand
Austria voted in favor of opening European Union membership talks with Ukraine and Georgia at an EU summit in Brussels on Thursday. Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán left the room to facilitate a unanimous vote among member states on the matter.
…Then Try To Take With The Other
Austria had been holding up a fresh round of European sanctions against Russia because it wanted the Austrian bank Raiffeisen Bank International (RBI) removed from a Ukrainian list of “international sponsors of war.” RBI has substantial business interests in Russia with around 2,600 corporate customers, 4 million local account holders, and 10,000 staff, Reuters reports.
Crisis Of Faith
Only 16 percent of Austrians believe “there is a God who reveals himself in Jesus Christ.” More than half of Austrians believe “there is a higher being or a spiritual power,” while only 23 percent say there isn’t. The same study found that 34 percent of Austrians engage in volunteer work, with that figure increasing to 58 percent among those who believe in Christ.
Happy holidays! The Vienna Briefing will return on January 3.