Electoral Calculus
A surge in support for the Beer Party and the Communist Party could make or break a right-wing coalition after the next election
Servus!
As I wrote to you two weeks ago, the Beer Party has decided to participate in parliamentary elections due to be held later this year, likely on September 29. At the same time, the Communist Party (KPÖ) is on the rise, and there exists the possibility that the party will win enough votes to gain seats in parliament for the first time since 1956 when the KPÖ was led by Johann Koplenig, who served as vice-chancellor in Karl Renner’s provisional government formed in the final days of the Second World War.
The emergence of the Beer Party and re-emergence of the KPÖ after decades of electoral obscurity have further divided the left-liberal electorate in Austria, one which is already in the minority. While the country’s conservative electorate has its support concentrated in two parties—the center-right People’s Party (ÖVP) and far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ)—the rest is now split between the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPÖ), the Greens, the liberal NEOS, the Beer Party, and the KPÖ.
The FPÖ continues to maintain its lead in polling going into September’s election. There is no evidence—for the moment, at least—that either the Beer Party or the KPÖ are succeeding in picking off protest voters from the far-right. The FPÖ is out ahead right now on 29 percent, followed by the SPÖ on 22 percent, the ÖVP on 20 percent, the NEOS on 9 percent, the Greens on 8 percent, the Beer Party on 6 percent, and the KPÖ on 4 percent.
These numbers mean that the SPÖ leading a traffic light coalition with the Greens and NEOS in the next parliament is now totally out of the question. The possibility was always a remote one given that such a government would not have had a majority in the Federal Council, the upper house of the Austrian parliament, even if it had won a majority in the National Council, the lower house. A divided left-liberal electorate, however, means a red-pink-green coalition simply does not have the numbers to succeed.
At the same time, however, that there may no longer be a firm majority for an FPÖ-ÖVP government either. Were this polling average translated into seats, there would be an even split in the next National Council between the FPÖ and ÖVP on one side of the house and the SPÖ, NEOS, Greens, Beer Party, and KPÖ on the other. Such a scenario would make an alternative coalition of the broad political center between the SPÖ, ÖVP, and Greens more likely despite all the obvious problems and pitfalls such an arrangement would present.
It’s a very precarious situation indeed. Potentially, the Beer Party and KPÖ could win enough votes to create a new set of political circumstances in the next Austrian parliament than the one I previously anticipated. But just as likely, the KPÖ will fall below the 4 percent electoral threshold needed to gain seats in parliament, and perhaps, when all is said and done, so too will the Beer Party. Were that to be the case, all those votes would go to waste, and then an FPÖ-ÖVP coalition would be guaranteed its majority.
Bis bald!
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A note for British citizens living in Austria: The prime minister having called a general election for July 4, now is the time to register to vote if you haven’t done so already. The special interest group British in Austria recommends British citizens living in Austria apply for a proxy vote where possible due to concerns about delays in delivering postal votes. You must register to vote first before applying for either a proxy or postal vote:
Register to vote: https://www.gov.uk/register-to-vote
Apply for a proxy vote: https://www.gov.uk/apply-proxy-vote
Apply for a postal vote: https://www.gov.uk/apply-postal-vote
Collective Guilt
“We will not be able to agree that an association or a unit such as the Waffen-SS should be held collectively guilty,” FPÖ leader Herbert Kickl said in a recently unearthed clip from 2010. Kickl made those remarks in the context of a TV debate with the then-president of the Jewish Community of Vienna, Ariel Muzicant.
Rates Cut
Interest rates in Austria look set to come down after the European Central Bank indicated its willingness to make its first rates cut next week. The ECB deposit rate is currently 4 percent; investors believe the bank will lower that benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points in the coming days.
Greens Out
Most Austrians don’t want the Greens to be part of the next government, a new poll from Heute/Unique Research has found. 63 percent of Austrian voters said the Greens shouldn’t continue to govern after September 29, and opposition was particularly strong among FPÖ voters. Only a majority of Green voters were in favor.