Going Down
Both of Austria's governing parties find their poll numbers in decline as 2023 draws to a close
Servus!
In the final days of November, two major polls made for grim reading for the governing conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) and their coalition partners, the Greens. Both polls—one published by the Standard, the other by Heute and the television stations ATV and Puls24—confirmed that the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) remains the most popular political party in Austria, much as it has been since November 2022. The FPÖ polled at 32 percent in the Heute poll and 30 percent in the Standard’s: between six to 10 points ahead of the next of the pack.
While the FPÖ are out in front, the ÖVP are in decline. After a mild recovery in the polls over the spring and summer, their numbers have been going downwards since September. In the Standard poll, the ÖVP placed third on 20 percent behind the Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) on 24 percent. According to Heute, the SPÖ and ÖVP are tied on 22 percent. The ÖVP, then, are back to where they were during the winter of 2022/23, one shaped by the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the winter of 2016/17, the dog days of the grand SPÖ-ÖVP coalition before Sebastian Kurz took over the party and radically changed their fortunes.
The Greens aren’t doing much better either. After a sensational comeback in the 2019 general election (13.9 percent) and after polling at the high of 18 percent during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the Greens are now polling at between 8 and 9 percent. Their misfortune has been the SPÖ’s relative gain, it would seem. From a low of 17 percent in January 2020, the SPÖ’s 22-24 percent in the Standard and Heute polls represents a minor recovery, though far from the major gains the party would have hoped for given the crises this government has survived.
For both parties, it must smart that, taking the COVID-19 pandemic, the international supply side crisis, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine into account, the state of the Austrian economy could be worse. Inflation is down from a high of 11.2 percent in January to 5.4 percent in November (though it is still too high). The unemployment rate remains stable at between 6 and 7 percent. The economy is currently in recession after negative growth in Q2 and Q3 on the back of an underperforming industrial sector, though Austrian GDP is expected to grow in 2024 and 2025.
The ÖVP can also claim, even in the context of these crises, to have implemented key campaign promises, in particular income tax cuts for low- and middle-earners, an end to bracket creep by which income tax brackets rise in line with inflation, and the introduction and expansion of family tax credits. Yet after a tremendous general election victory in 2019 (37.5 percent) and polling at a high of 44 percent late April 2020, support for the ÖVP has evaporated—lost, it would seem, both at the federal and state level, to a resurgent far-right. And nothing the ÖVP has tried, including imitating the FPÖ on immigration and nationalist rhetoric, has helped buck this trend.
The fact is the ÖVP is missing its secret sauce. Kurz was the great political talent of his generation who transformed the ÖVP’s fortunes and brought them two general election victories. He was also, as Hans Rauscher wrote recently in the Standard, a man who “misused his talent”; “the ÖVP has been trying to cover this up” and has been paying for it “ever since.” Whatever the party’s achievements over the life of this ÖVP-Green coalition, they provide little counterweight to the mismanagement and allegations of corruption and clientelism now associated with the party in the minds of voters. In more ways than one, the ÖVP cannot escape Kurz’s political legacy.
Bis bald!
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Inflation Stagnates
Inflation in Austria remained stuck at 5.4 percent in November—the same rate is in October, according to initial estimates. Austria’s rate of inflation is still above the Eurozone average, which came in at 2.4 percent in November.
Habemus Kollektivvertrag!
Labor and industry have come to terms on a new collective bargaining agreement for Austria’s metal workers, which includes an average pay increase of 8.6 percent. Unions and employers remain far apart on a new wage agreement for the country’s retail workers.
COVID Comeback
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