The Season Of Idle Speculation
Austria's Freedom Party and People's Party will only be able to a form a coalition after the next election if they can agree on what to do about Herbert Kickl
Servus!
The election is now less than three months away and the far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) is holding onto its lead in the polls, one it took in November 2022. The most-recent survey conducted by Unique Research and published by Profil showed the FPÖ out ahead on 27 percent, the conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) on 23 percent, the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) on 21 percent, the liberal NEOS on 10 percent, the Greens on 9 percent, and the Beer Party crossing the electoral threshold on 7 percent.
The gap between the FPÖ and the rest of the pack has contracted over the last six months in tandem with the entry of the Beer Party into the race, and the outcome of the European elections in June was tighter than anticipated after the ÖVP outperformed everyone’s admittedly low expectations. Still, the FPÖ remains on course to win the next election and a right-wing coalition between the FPÖ and the ÖVP remains the most probable outcome of post-election negotiations. The liberal-left electorate continues to be divided and in the minority.
An FPÖ-ÖVP coalition, however, faces two major obstacles. The first is that, because of the likely outcome of the election, it would have a simple as opposed to a two-thirds majority in the next parliament, meaning it would have to rely on the SPÖ to pass constitutional legislation. It is difficult to imagine a situation in which the SPÖ—led by Andreas Babler, who comes from the left of the party—would find itself amenable to aiding and abetting a right-wing government from the opposition on a regular basis.
The second is Herbert Kickl. FPÖ party secretary Christian Hafenecker clarified in an interview with the public broadcaster ORF last week that the far-right would not participate in any future government unless FPÖ leader Kickl were either chancellor or a cabinet minister. The ÖVP, meanwhile, said as recently as mid-June that while they are open to a coalition with the FPÖ, it would have to be without Kickl. The ÖVP has previously called Kickl a right-wing extremist, a Russian agent, and a threat to Austrian national security.
Thus, we have an impasse that can only be resolved one of three ways. First, the FPÖ backs down and nominates an alternative chancellor or cabinet minister to Kickl. This, however, risks another Jörg Haider scenario and a split within the party from which it would take the FPÖ another decade to recover. Better life in the opposition than that. Second, the ÖVP backs down and acquiesces to Kickl as chancellor or minister. Letting someone the party has labelled an extremist and threat to national security back into the cabinet, however, would destroy what is left of the ÖVP’s image at home and in Europe as a responsible party of state.
This leads us to a third scenario. Neither party backs down, and the impasse cannot be resolved. The FPÖ would be forced into opposition, because for them, there are no alternative routes to power other than via the ÖVP. Neither the SPÖ, NEOS, Greens, nor Beer Party would surely countenance a coalition with the far-right. The ÖVP, meanwhile, being a party for whom life in the opposition is a fate worse than death, would have to turn to a long-forgotten friend to remain in office: the SPÖ. Together, they would form a three-party coalition of the political center with either the Greens or NEOS, one which would have a majority in both houses of parliament.
Bis bald!
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