Red And Black
Following Herbert Kickl's failed attempt to become Austria's first Freedom Party chancellor, the People’s Party and Social Democratic Party have returned to the negotiating table
Servus!
At shortly before three in the afternoon on Wednesday last week, Freedom Party (FPÖ) leader Herbert Kickl was forced to concede that he could not, in fact, become Austria’s first far-right chancellor since the Second World War. After returning his mandate to try and form a government to President Alexander Van der Bellen, Kickl said in a press statement that he was forced to take this decision because the FPÖ and conservative People’s Party (ÖVP) had reached an impasse over how ministries and portfolios would be divided in a future coalition government.
The disagreement ultimately came down to who should control the interior ministry. The FPÖ wanted it because they believed that it was only through the interior ministry that they could implement their strict immigration and asylum policy. Unmentioned by the FPÖ, of course, was that the interior ministry is responsible for the police and security services—he who controls the interior ministry wields the force of the state. The ÖVP wanted it, meanwhile, because it has been their fiefdom for over 20 years, and because it would not have been in the interests of the republic for the FPÖ to be responsible for Austria’s intelligence services.
As I explained in last week’s newsletter, however, this dispute over ministerial portfolios is only half the story. Beneath this not entirely superficial argument over titles and departments were deep and meaningful disagreements over policy and fundamental values. Whether on Austria’s constitution, justice system, Europe and foreign policy, and membership of the rules-based international order as well as inalienable rights like freedom of speech, assembly, and of the press, the FPÖ and ÖVP remained divided until the end on the very nature of the Second Republic itself.
From the beginning of these negotiations, Kickl behaved as if he could bully the ÖVP into accepting the role of junior partner to the FPÖ. He stuck by a series of maximalist demands—some of which he must have known the ÖVP could never accept—as if the polls represented political reality. Kickl was, Profil reports, an aloof, disinterested, and inscrutable negotiator. He did not work on burnishing relations with the ÖVP and its interim leader, Christian Stocker; he only sat down for seven hours of negotiations with the ÖVP. Deliberately or otherwise, it is hard not to conclude Kickl alone blew his best chance at the chancellorship.
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The day after Kickl gave up his mandate to try and form a government, Van der Bellen outlined four possible paths forward out of what are now the longest post-election negotiations since the War. Option one: parliament could call new elections, and those would likely be held in June. Option two: a parliamentary majority could agree to support a minority government. Option three: Van der Bellen could appoint a government of experts. Option four: a coalition government with a parliamentary majority could still be formed.
Of these, a coalition government appears the most likely option. New elections would be fantastic for the FPÖ—and no one else. The FPÖ are currently polling at an average of 34 percent—up from the 29 percent they secured in September’s election, though, interestingly, down from their early January high of 36 percent. The far-right also has the financial resources to fight another election campaign, while the ÖVP and Social Democratic Party (SPÖ) are in debt, though as Anneliese Rohrer said in a recent episode of Rohrer bei Budgen, the ÖVP can always call Raiffeisen and ask for a loan.
A minority government—whether that be the ÖVP alone or an ÖVP-NEOS coalition—would be inherently brittle and dependent on the SPÖ and Greens to pass legislation. A government of experts would be a fine bridging mechanism for a year, maybe two, but as stewards, they would only be able to tend to the garden as opposed to plant new flowers. Only a coalition government with a parliamentary majority and a program for government has a real shot at succeeding, which brings Austria back to the negotiations that failed at the turn of the year: an ÖVP-SPÖ coalition supported from within or without by the NEOS and Greens.
The difficulty is, when they return to the negotiating table, the ÖVP and SPÖ will find themselves confronted with the very same problems that saw them give up in the first place. They will need to agree a way to consolidate Austria’s budget as to avoid an excessive deficit procedure with the European Union. That includes agreeing a series of spending cuts and, per the SPÖ’s insistence, tax increases: either a wealth tax, inheritance tax, or levy on banks’ profits. They will need to agree on a budget for 2025. They will need to agree on pension reform, education reform, and constitutional reform. They will need to agree on a new law governing the ORF. All this—and more. And they haven’t a moment to lose.
Bis bald!
Nice roulette wheel analogy. And the presence of green on the wheel alsp highlights an option theoretically on the table (but unlikely) mentioned in Van der Bellen's speech last week!
Thank you, as always. Fingers crossed for a pro-democracy, pro-EU Austria!